There are plenty of reasons to think that Arizona's new immigration law is bad policy, not the least of which is its moral repugnance. But if you just want to stick to the practical side of things and appeal to the self-interest of Arizonans, you could do worse than this:
My colleague Dowell Myers points out that for the housing market in the US to remain healthy, we must "cultivate new immigrant residents." Arizona's new law, which would require immigrants (legal or otherwise) to "carry papers" creates what I would consider to be an atmosphere of hostility to immigrants--all immigrants. I am also awaiting the spectacle of a police officer demanding the "papers" of a native-born Latino.
In any event, people have a propensity to go where they feel welcome, and avoid places where they are not. Hostility to immigrants in general and Latinos in particular seems to be a political loser in California, so Arizona's policies may lead to higher demand for houses in California.
That's from public policy professor Richard Green (via Free Exchange), and it makes sense. Arizona's politicians might claim that this law doesn't apply to citizens, and that American Latinos therefore needn't worry. But it does create an exceedingly unpleasant environment, and it makes Hispanics living in Arizona less likely to stay (especially if family members are there illegally) and those outside the state less likely to move there.
Opponents of liberalizing immigration laws like to focus narrowly on the supply side: they believe immigrants "steal" American jobs, push down wages, and are a drag on the public purse. They're wrong about those things, but what's strange is how skeptics so rarely acknowledge that immigrants are also themselves a source of consumption and demand. Pushing them out means fewer people dining in your restaurants, shopping in your malls, and yes, buying and renting your houses. Free Exchange writes:
And consider that Phoenix home values have declined 52% from their peak, are still off on a year-over-year basis, and declined in both January and February of this year. As Mr Sumner put it, now might not be the optimal moment to send out a signal to property markets that Hispanic immigration is about to slow sharply.
***
This paper from Albert Saiz concludes: "Immigration pushes up rents and housing values in US destination cities. The positive association of rent growth and immigrant inflows is pervasive in time series for all metropolitan areas."
The best book I've read on the benefits of immigration, which are many and varied, is this one.
Comments